Formulating Adaptation Pathways for Water Management in the Sagarmatha Region.

Across mountain regions worldwide, climate change is now transforming these ecosystems at an unprecedented pace. Consequently, the livelihoods of those who call these regions home are facing deep uncertainty.

For centuries, high in the foothills of Sagarmatha in Mount Everest in Nepal, communities in the Khumbu Pasanglhamu Rural Municipality (KPLRM) have lived in a close relationship with glaciers, rivers, forests, and alpine landscapes. Across mountain regions worldwide, climate change is now transforming these ecosystems at an unprecedented pace. Consequently, the livelihoods of those who call these regions home are facing deep uncertainty. In the Hindu Kush Himalaya, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD, 2023) estimates that 70–80 percent of the region’s current glacier volume could disappear by 2100. In Nepal’s Khumbu region, this is not a distant threat but a day-to-day reality affecting livelihoods, safety, and the future of the community.

This vulnerability became starkly evident on 16 August 2024, when a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) swept through Thame village in Solukhumbu, destroying homes and infrastructure and displacing more than a hundred residents. The disaster serves as a grim example of how hazards related to the cryosphere (areas of Earth where water exists in solid form, including glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost) are intensifying in a warming climate, placing mountain communities on the frontlines of climate risk.

In response to these growing challenges, UNESCO conducted consultative workshops in Namche and Thame under the project “Reduce Vulnerability and Build Resilience in the Koshi Basin.” This initiative is implemented within the broader framework of Sustainable Water Security in Developing Countries through Climate Change Adaptation. These workshops, interviews, and field visits helped everyone build a shared understanding of the local situation, the challenges people face, and what decisions need to be made according to the Climate Risk-Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) methodology. The objective of these workshops was to establish a shared understanding of climate risks by bringing together local leaders, decision-makers, and community members. These consultations provided a participatory, bottom-up environment where residents could articulate their priorities and begin co-designing locally relevant adaptation pathways. Most of these pathways focused on developing early warning systems and river management to enhance long-term water security.

Workshops held on 29 November in Namche and 1 December 2025 in Thame highlighted distinct local contexts. Namche, a major tourism hub, has a high concentration of hotels and depends heavily on externally sourced resources. In contrast, Thame is a remote village relying primarily on agriculture and seasonal tourism-related migration for livelihood.

Despite these socio-economic differences, participants consistently highlighted a shared concern: the increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather over the past two decades.

“A few years ago, just two days of rainfall felt equivalent to an entire season’s worth of precipitation,” shared Mr. Mingma Sherpa, Chairperson of the Namche Youth Club. “The same thing happened again this year in late September when we experienced three consecutive days of torrential rain. These kinds of extreme events are becoming more frequent.”

Participants added that such erratic rainfall disrupts tourist activities, impacting the entire region's economy. Key climate hazards identified included GLOFs, landslides, unpredictable monsoon patterns, reduced snowfall, and winter droughts accompanied by strong winds. Emerging ecological pressures were also noted, such as rising human–wildlife conflict, insect infestations affecting crops, and frost damage to agricultural production.

The emotional weight of these changes is heavy. “Last year’s GLOF arrived with a thunderous sound and swept away part of our village. I have a constant fear that a similar event could occur at night when we would not even know where to escape,” shared one participant. Another added, “We were fortunate that a teacher noticed the flood approaching and was able to warn the students to move to a safer place.”

Reflecting on the aftermath, Dr. Kami Sherpa, a hotel owner and medical doctor, noted: “A man in his mid-60s with hearing difficulties was trapped in the school and could only be evacuated the next day. The boulders left behind are too large to remove, the river has changed its course, and the mid-section of the village has been scraped away. Our village will never look the same again.”

 

While mountain communities are actively coping with climate variability, the intensity of these events is stretching local resilience to its limits. Participants stressed that resilience requires community-led solutions, stronger early warning systems, policies rooted in grassroots realities, and timely coordination with the government. Applying the CRIDA methodology does more than analyze data; it provides a reality check. By stress-testing these systems, stakeholders can move beyond theory and build a practical, evidence-based roadmap to protect the future of the mountains.

 

About CRIDA


The CRIDA approach begins with a preparatory phase to define the problem and engage key stakeholders. This is followed by a shared understanding of the water system and agreement on goals and performance metrics, known as the decision context. A climate stress test then assesses vulnerabilities to climatic and non-climatic pressures. Based on these insights, flexible and robust adaptation options are identified and evaluated for their effectiveness and co-benefits. In the final step, selected actions are institutionalized to support long-term implementation within existing financial and governance frameworks.