From Anthropogenic Drought to Water Bankruptcy.

 

“Anthropogenic drought” has been proposed as a concept to distinguish between water shortages driven primarily by natural variability and those driven largely by the combination of natural causes and human actions. Anthropogenic drought is understood as a longterm process whereby land-use change, water overallocation, groundwater depletion, climate change, and other human-induced changes in the human-water system turn what might have been manageable dry periods into persistent water deficits, even under “normal” climate conditions. Water bankruptcy can be seen as the outcome or endstate of this process when it continues unchecked. Where anthropogenic drought describes a “process” of drying and deficit amplified by humans, water bankruptcy describes the “state” of the human-water system after critical thresholds have been crossed: when long-term water use has exceeded renewable inflows and safe depletion limits for so long that the underlying water and natural capital is degraded beyond easy repair. In this sense, anthropogenic drought and water bankruptcy are complementary concepts to better describe and understand human-water systems in the Anthropocene. 

Anthropogenic drought is the pathway; Water bankruptcy is the destination at which mitigation alone is no longer sufficient, because part of the damage is irreversible and the system cannot be brought back to its previous condition with practical economic and political costs within meaningful planning horizons. Such a situation calls for adaptation to new normals in addition to mitigation efforts that seek to prevent further damages and restore what can be restored.